The Next Six Months are Everything!
Small Business Forum: Your Beliefs May Be as Big a Problem as Business Conditions! .jpg)
If I had a nickel for every time I heard someone in our small business mutter, "The next six months are everything!" over the past twenty three years I'd have a modest pile of nickels and a twitch whenever I heard something about cash flow projections. Oh, I do have a twitch!
C'mon people, it is really a whole new world out there, stop acting like you didn't see thing coming. I was traipsing around Fort Worth, TX back in early 2008 when I started noticing the "$5 Foot long" signs in the windows at Subway followed shortly by the same offers at Quizno's, a sure indication that the amount of lunchtime traffic in that area had slowed and the companies were trying to draw people out again. To be sure this was also one of those times that gas prices were flirting with all time highs but I had the feeling this was more than just that. Our business, management education and development, had started to slow in the fourth quarter of 2007 so my economic antenna were already on red alert and had been for several months.
If you operate or have operated a business to business services company (well actually any smaller business!) you know that often your fate is tied to your larger clients. If you have a business like mine you have always known you were considered discretionary, even in the best of times.
We’ve seen things fall apart before, the dot com bust, post 9/11 and so on, so in early 2008 we just figured “Hang in there and this will pass, it always has!” Well it’s been almost 30 months since then and it hasn’t past and it isn’t going to. This time is truly different.
I was inspired a couple of weeks back to read a piece in Seattle 2.0 by Richard Luck, CEO of Loudlever, a software company. Richard is a software guy and fortunately for us he occasionally posts to his own blog, aguywithanidea.com. He doesn’t write often but when he does it is worth waiting for. He is in the trenches everyday building a company but has that rare ability to step back and comment on the larger context.
Take a look at Richard’s piece, especially his thoughts on financial planning in the current circumstances. In his words, “Financial forecasting in this environment, in this marketplace, is like trying to build a house on a foundation of quicksand.”
Richard is being realistic; he is not operating from his past waiting for things to get back to what is familiar and manageable. If you haven’t adopted his perspective it is time you did. Oh yes, and get around to reading ‘The World is Flat 3.0’, I know it is a bit old now but it will seem like news if you haven’t seen it yet. Very grounding!
- Are you still operating your business like "things will get back to normal?"
- Can you see that it may be time to create a new set of operating assumptions? What might they be?
Mike - thanks so much for reading. I really appreciate it. And it's humbling to hear that I've possibly struck a chord somewhere, with someone.
I've just now discovered this blog and am enjoying what I've read so far. I look forward to reading more!
Take care,
Richard